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Oil and gas is a depleting resource with an average annual production decline rate of 6–7%.9 . Global oil demand is forecast to decline by 9.3 mb/d per year in 2020 according to the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR). In 187 countries and territories, the effects of containment policies have almost halted mobility. It is projected that the demand in April is 29 mb/d less than a year ago, down to the 1995 level.
Millions of citizens world-wide suffer from one of last century’s greatest health crises. The world economy is under strain in ways that have not been seen since the Grand Depression of the 1930s. In 187 countries and territories, containment policies are introduced, and although they differ in nature, transportation industry operation has decreased significantly almost everywhere. While travel constraints are eased in the latter half of the year, global oil demand is expected to fall 9.3 million barrels per day by the year 2020 versus 2019, wiping out nearly a decade of growth.
Politicians reply with drastic measures against this dreadful backdrop. Significant fiscal emergency programmes to help employees and companies were implemented by governments. Central banks have launched major currency stimulus schemes. We are also seeing action to address the situation on the petroleum market and over the past week two important events are taking place.
In addition to immediate market imbalances, the IEA pointed out to the G20 Energy Ministers that while low prices may seem appealing to customers, the approximately four billion people who live on Covid-19 lock-down have little gain. In addition, low prices influence the lives of millions of workers working along the vast supply chain of the oil industry and harm the economies of poorer producing countries, which already suffer from fragile social stability.
The stability of an industry that remains fundamental to the workings of the global economy, is threatened by low prices. While demand has dropped by record this year, petroleum companies are still faced with the challenges of investing to compensate for declines in natural output and potential development. Global investment by companies of exploration and development is expected to decline to $335 billion in 2020, the lowest amount for 13 years, by around 32% compared with 2019. This decline in financial means also undermines the oil industry’s ability to implement some of the technologies needed to transition renewable energy worldwide.
But it will not be easy to prepare a lower carbon future. O&G businesses can choose from a variety of choices for greener portfolios in 2021, but not everybody is competitive economically or has reliable performance over the years and across regions. In reality, a hydrocarbon business model still has a great deal to give, in particular for the capital below the cost curve and can be adapted for major emissions reductions using emerging renewable energy technologies (e.g. carbon capture and hydrogen-based energy storage). Capture, use, and stockpiling of carbon (CCUS) and green hydrogen is likely to gain only more momentum, with global stronger climate policy and technological developments supporting them.
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